Preview: UFC 318 Prelims

Middleweights

Brendan Allen (24-7, 12-4 UFC) vs. Marvin Vettori (19-8-1, 9-6-1 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Allen (-245), Vettori (+200)

Initially slated for a main event spot in 2024, Vettori and Allen square off in what’s now a crucially important fight for both men. For most of Vettori’s UFC career, he has been consistent to a fault. It took him a while to settle into what eventually became a consistent if low-powered pressure game, but “The Italian Dream” proved fairly impossible to knock off his game. Vettori could get outmaneuvered at points, but he would just keep eating offense and marching forward while trying to make things happen with some limited tools. That sheer consistency eventually earned Vettori a title shot against Israel Adesanya in 2021, and after falling short in both that fight and a later bout against former champ Robert Whittaker, it’s understandable that he would want to try and evolve. In a 2023 fight against Roman Dolidze, Vettori actually showed some new wrinkles in trying to stay elusive and outmaneuver an opponent himself, which worked in that fight. However, it seems like attempting to add some new ideas might have left Vettori worse off in the long run.

Vettori’s next fight against Jared Cannonier saw him get hit hard enough to put some doubt into his head that had not been there before, and after missing two years due to injury, he continued to look worse in a rematch against Dolidze in March. Vettori hung tough for five rounds but no longer seemed to have the appetite for consistent pressure that marked a lot of his success. Vettori is still just 31 years old with a chin that hasn’t been completely cracked, so there’s a decent shot that this is just a period of rough growing pains that will see him eventually come out the other end as a better fighter. With that said, it would be nice for him to turn that corner as soon as possible against Allen.



Kill Cliff Fight Club’s Allen looked like a fun scrapper coming off the 2019 edition of the Contender Series, but he quickly proved himself capable of causing damage in the middleweight division, earning finishes against the much more highly regarded Kevin Holland and Tom Breese. “All In” would eventually hit some setbacks against Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis but seemingly used those losses as motivation to improve in the long run. Allen’s striking is now decently functional, but it mostly clicks into place due to what looked like one of the most effective grappling games in the middleweight division. Allen was consistently fearless in terms of going to the mat and kept getting the better of things during his recent seven-fight winning streak, which included victories against dangerous submission artists like Andre Muniz and Paul Craig. That made it a bit of a shock as far as exactly how hard Allen hit a wall over the course of the past year.

Fellow fringe contenders Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez completely stifled Allen and did so while playing his game, proving to be more effective wrestlers and grapplers while he tired himself out attempting to fight out of trouble. This fight is a coinflip in a few different ways, starting with the fact that Vettori’s wrestling defense hasn’t been tested to any great degree in a while. With the erosion in other parts of Vettori’s game, it’s an open question as to how well things will hold up on the mat if Allen looks to get to his best weapons. Of course, Allen’s approach is also a question, as it’s easy to see him getting discouraged from wrestling given how that got turned against him in his last two fights. With Allen perhaps being buoyed by a home-field advantage here, along with Vettori clearly being in the worse mental state of the two as a fighter, the call is that the former Legacy Fighting Alliance champion can keep throwing out enough ideas to win rounds, even if this could be a bit of a mess. The pick is Allen via decision.

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