Preview: UFC 316 ‘Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2’

Middleweights
Kelvin Gastelum (19-9, 1 NC) vs. Joe Pyfer (13-3)
Odds: Pyfer (-380), Gastelum (+300)

2024 was a minor setback for Joe Pyfer, but he still looks like someone that should make an impact in the middleweight division sooner rather than later. Pyfer's first trip to the Contender Series in 2020 was a complete disaster; before things really got going, Pyfer gruesomely broke his arm and would wind up out of action for over a year. But upon his return, "Bodybagz" quickly marched his way back to the Contender Series and earned a definitive win to get himself a contract in 2022. Pyfer then spent the remainder of that year and all of 2023 affirming himself as a top prospect, running through what would be some tricky competition for other fighters; Pyfer's big for the division, hits cleanfully and powerfully and has some strong grappling to back things up, a combination of skills that most opponents have not been able to stand up to. But Pyfer's first fight of 2024 was a main event loss to Jack Hermansson, which thankfully read more as a speed bump than exposing Pyfer as some sort of fraud; Pyfer had an effective start and simply ran out of ideas but stayed tough as he tired, suggesting he just needs time and experience to learn what he doesn't know. A quick obliteration of Marc-Andre Barriault in Pyfer's next fight was a reminder that he's still someone to watch, and Kelvin Gastelum's a strong choice for a next test - even as Gastelum suddenly has a lot to figure out. Gastelum was an unknown prospect when he won season 17 of TUF in 2013, and it quickly looked like he'd become a welterweight title contender thanks to his combination of aggression and durability. But for all of Gastelum's talent, the welterweight part of that equation proved to be a tough ask, with constant weight issues dogging Gastelum to the point that he was essentially forced to move up to middleweight full-time. Gastelum's run up the ladder at 185 pounds was a bit odd, as he proved to keep catching former champions and contenders just as they were entering their late-career slides, but an excellent performance against Israel Adesanya in a 2019 interim title fight suggested that Gastelum would indeed stick around the middleweight title picture. Instead, it began a slide of four losses in five fights, as Gastelum's lackadaisical approach and general lack of evolution seemed to finally catch up with him prompting - surprisingly - another attempted move down to welterweight. Gastelum's first fight back down at 170 pounds saw him get consistently out-wrestled for the first time in his career by Sean Brady, and, well, that proved to be Gastelum's only fight back at welterweight - his next bout against Daniel Rodriguez was slated for that weight, only for Gastelum to force the fight up to middleweight thanks to his constant issues and lean on his newfound size advantage for an ugly win. Gastelum's still tough and durable, but he's always relied on his natural athleticism and talent that now seems to be fading after a dozen hard-fought years in the UFC - and while Pyfer might still only have two or three ideas, they should remain highly effective. The pick is Pyfer via second-round submission.

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Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley
Pena vs. Harrison
Gastelum vs. Pyfer
Bautista vs. Mix
Luque vs. Holland
The Prelims